Absence of Excess Mortality in a Highly Vaccinated Population During the Initial Covid-19 Delta Period. (preprint)

ABSTRACT

BackgroundAll-cause excess mortality (the number of deaths that exceed projections in any period) has been widely reported during the Covid-19 pandemic. Whether excess mortality has occurred during the Delta wave is less well understood. MethodsWe performed an observational study using data from the Massachusetts Department of Health. Five years of US Census population data and CDC mortality statistics were applied to a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sARIMA) model to project the number of expected deaths for each week of the pandemic period, including the Delta period (starting in June 2021, extending through August 28th 2021, for which mortality data are >99% complete). Weekly Covid-19 cases, Covid-19-attributed deaths, and all-cause deaths are reported. County-level excess mortality during the vaccine campaign are also reported, with weekly rates of vaccination in each county that reported 100 or more all-cause deaths during any week included in the study period. ResultsAll-cause mortality was not observed after March 2021, by which time over 75% of persons over 65 years of age in Massachusetts had received a vaccination. Fewer deaths than expected (which we term deficit mortality) occurred both during the summer of 2020, the spring of 2021 and during the Delta wave (beginning June 13, 2021 when Delta isolates represented >10% of sequenced cases). After the initial wave in the spring of 2020, more Covid-19-attributed deaths were recorded that all-cause excess deaths, implying that Covid-19 was misattributed as the underlying cause, rather than a contributing cause of death in some cases. ConclusionIn a state with high vaccination rates, excess mortality has not been recorded during the Delta period. Deficit mortality has been recorded during this period.