Adverse events of special interest for COVID-19 vaccines - background incidences vary by sex, age and time period and are affected by the pandemic (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background With large-scale COVID-19 vaccination implemented world-wide, safety signals needing rapid evaluation will emerge. We report population-based, age- and-sex-specific background incidence rates of conditions representing potential vaccine adverse events of special interest (AESI) for the Swedish general population using register data. Methods We studied an age/sex-stratified random 10% sample of the Swedish population on 1 Jan 2020, followed for AESI outcomes during 1 year, as the COVID-19 pandemic emerged and developed, before the start of vaccinations. We selected and defined the following outcomes based on information from regulatory authorities, large-scale adverse events initiatives and previous studies aseptic meningitis, febrile seizure, Kawasaki syndrome, MISC, post-infectious arthritis, arthritis, myocarditis, ARDS, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, venous thromboembolism, pulmonary embolism, kidney failure, liver failure, erythema multiforme, disseminated intravascular coagulation, autoimmune thyroiditis, and appendicitis. We calculated incidence rates stratified by age, sex and time period (quarters of 2020), and classified them using Council of International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) categories very common, common, uncommon, rare, or very rare. Results We included 972,723 study subjects, representing the Swedish national population on 1 Jan 2020. We found that AESI incidence rates vary greatly by age and in some cases sex. Several common AESIs showed expected increase with age, while some (e.g. appendicitis, aseptic meningitis, autoimmune thyroiditis, Kawasaki syndrome and MISC) were more common in young people, and others exhibited a flatter age pattern (e.g. myocarditis, DIC and erythema multiforme). Consequently, the CIOMS classification for AESIs varied widely according to age. Considerable variability was suggested for some AESI rates across the 4 quarters of 2020, potentially related to pandemic waves, seasonal variation, healthcare system overload or other healthcare delivery effects. Conclusion Age, sex, and timing of rates are important to consider when background AESI rates are compared to corresponding rates observed with COVID-19 vaccines.