Longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 RNA Wastewater Monitoring Across a Range of Scales Correlates with Total and Regional COVID-19 Burden in a Well-Defined Urban Population (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an emerging surveillance tool that has been used to monitor the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic by tracking SARS-CoV-2 RNA shed into wastewater. WBE was performed to monitor the occurrence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 from three wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and six neighborhoods in the city of Calgary, Canada (population 1.3 million). A total of 222 WWTP and 192 neighborhood samples were collected from June 2020 to May 2021, encompassing the end of the first-wave (June 2020), the second-wave (November end to December, 2020) and the third-wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (mid-April to May, 2021). Flow-weighted 24-hour composite samples were processed to extract RNA that was then analyzed for two SARS-CoV-2-specific regions of the nucleocapsid gene, N1 and N2, using reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Using this approach SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 98.06 percent (406/414) of wastewater samples. SARS-CoV-2 RNA abundance was compared to clinically diagnosed COVID-19 cases organized by the three-digit postal code of affected individuals primary residences, enabling correlation analysis at neighborhood, WWTP and city-wide scales. Strong correlations were observed between N1 and N2 gene signals in wastewater and new daily cases for WWTPs and neighborhoods. Similarly, when flow rates at Calgarys three WWTPs were used to normalize observed concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and combine them into a city-wide signal, this was strongly correlated with regionally diagnosed COVID-19 cases and clinical test percent positivity rate. Linked census data demonstrated disproportionate SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater from areas of the city with lower socioeconomic status and more racialized communities. WBE across a range of urban scales was demonstrated to be an effective mechanism of COVID-19 surveillance.