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Analysis: A meta-analysis of Early Results to predict Vaccine efficacy against Omicron (preprint)
medrxiv; 2021.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2021.12.13.21267748
ABSTRACT
In the studies to date, the estimated fold-drop in neutralisation titre against Omicron ranges from 2- to over 20-fold depending on the study and serum tested. Collating data from the se results in a combined estimate of the fold drop in neutralisation titre against Omicron of 9.7 (95%CI 5.5-17.1). We use our previously established model to predict that six months after primary immunisation with an mRNA vaccine, efficacy for Omicron is estimated to have waned to around 40% against symptomatic and 80% against severe disease. A booster dose with an existing mRNA vaccine (even though it targets the ancestral spike) has the potential to raise efficacy to 86.2% (95% CI 75.4-92.9) (symptomatic) and 98.2% (95% CI 90.9-99.7) (severe) against Omicron.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Language:
English
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Preprint
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