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Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 immunity, Omicron's footprints, and projections of epidemic resurgences in South African population cohorts. (preprint)
medrxiv; 2022.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2022.02.11.22270854
ABSTRACT
Understanding the build-up of immunity with successive SARS-CoV-2 variants and the epidemiological conditions that favor rapidly expanding epidemics will facilitate future pandemic control. High-resolution infection and serology data from longitudinal household cohorts in South Africa reveal high cumulative infection rates and durable cross-protective immunity conferred by prior infection in the pre-Omicron era. Building on the cohorts history of past exposures to different SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination, we use mathematical models to explore the fitness advantage of the Omicron variant and its epidemic trajectory. Modelling suggests the Omicron wave infected a large fraction of the population, leaving a complex landscape of population immunity primed and boosted with antigenically distinct variants. Future SARS-CoV-2 resurgences are likely under a range of scenarios of viral characteristics, population contacts, and residual cross-protection. One Sentence SummaryClosely monitored population in South Africa reveal high cumulative infection rates and durable protection by prior infection against pre-Omicron variants. Modelling indicates that a large fraction of the population has been infected with Omicron; yet epidemic resurgences are plausible under a wide range of epidemiologic scenarios.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Language:
English
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Preprint
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