Novel pathogen introduction rapidly alters evolved movement strategies, restructuring animal societies (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Animal sociality emerges from individual decisions on how to balance the costs and benefits of being sociable. Movement strategies incorporating social information — the presence and status of neighbours — can modulate spatial associations, helping animals avoid infection while benefiting from indirect information about their environment. When a novel pathogen is introduced into a population, it should increase the costs of sociality, selecting against gregariousness. Yet current thinking about novel pathogen introductions into wildlife neglects hosts’ potential evolutionary responses. We built an individual-based model that captures essential features of the repeated introduction, and subsequent transmission of an infectious pathogen among social hosts. Examining movements in a foraging context, widely shared by many species, we show how introducing a novel pathogen to a population provokes a rapid evolutionary transition to a dynamic social distancing movement strategy. This evolutionary shift triggers a disease-dominated ecological cascade of increased individual movement, decreased resource harvesting, and fewer social encounters. Pathogen-risk adapted individuals form less clustered social networks than their pathogen-risk naive ancestors, which reduces the spread of disease. The mix of post-introduction social movement strategies is influenced by the usefulness of social information and disease cost. Our work demonstrates that evolutionary adaptation to pathogen introductions and re-introductions can be very rapid, comparable to ecological timescales. Our general modelling framework shows why evolutionary dynamics should be considered in movement-disease models, and offers initial predictions for the eco-evolutionary consequences of wildlife pathogen spillover scenarios.