School Reopening Simulations with COVID-19 Agent-based Model for the Philippine Regions (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: Schools have been closed in the Philippines since March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In September 2021, the government already allowed a pilot run of limited in-person classes in low-risk areas around the country, in the face of the continuing threat of the virus. Objective: We aim to assess which regions in the Philippines can already reopen their schools. Methods: In this study, we simulate school reopening scenarios with our modified COVID-19 agent-based model for the seventeen regions of the country. We tested different vaccination coverages and calculated the coverage at which deaths and infections would begin to show a downtick. The School Reopening Viability (SRV) of a region is then determined by getting the difference between the current vaccination coverage (as of 13 February 2022) and the downtick in infection or death. Results: The recent data on the COVID-19 Omicron variant transmission shows that all regions except Regions 7, 9, and BARMM can reopen. Comparing the SRV of a region to its vaccination progress, we see that those with high vaccination rates are the ones most viable for school reopening, as in the case of regions in Luzon. On the other hand, those with low vaccination rates are the ones that would need to ramp up their vaccination efforts before reopening their schools. Conclusions: We recommend that with the current vaccination coverages for the regions, all regions except Regions 7, 9, and BARMM may undergo school reopening. Alongside efforts to reopen schools, vaccination efforts should still be continued and ramped up, especially in the regions of interest. Policymakers may take insights from this study