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Periodic epidemic outbursts explained by local saturation of clusters (preprint)
medrxiv; 2022.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2022.08.31.22279430
ABSTRACT
Adding the notion of spatial locality to the susceptible-infected-removed (or SIR) model, allows to capture local saturation of an epidemic. The resulting minimum model of an epidemic, consisting of five ordinary differential equations with constant model coefficients, reproduces slowly decaying periodic outbursts, as observed in the COVID-19 or Spanish flu epidemic. It is shown that if immunity decays, even slowly, the model yields a fully periodic dynamics.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Main subject:
Encephalitis, Arbovirus
/
COVID-19
Language:
English
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Preprint
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