The Incidence of Immune Mediated Inflammatory Diseases Following COVID-19: a Matched Cohort Study in UK Primary Care (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Abstract Objective To assess whether there is an association between Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) infection and the incidence of immune mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs). Design Matched cohort study. Setting Primary care electronic health record data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. Participants The exposed cohort included 458,147 adults aged 18 years and older with a confirmed SARS CoV-2 infection by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or lateral flow antigen test, and no prior diagnosis of IMIDs. They were matched on age, sex, and general practice to 1,818,929 adults in the unexposed cohort with no diagnosis of confirmed or suspected SARS CoV-2 infection and no prior diagnosis of IMIDs. Main Outcome Measures The primary outcome measure was a composite of the incidence of any of the following IMIDs 1. autoimmune thyroiditis, 2. coeliac disease, 3. inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), 4. myasthenia gravis, 5. pernicious anaemia, 6. psoriasis, 7. rheumatoid arthritis (RA), 8. Sjogrens syndrome, 9. systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), 10. type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), and 11. vitiligo. The secondary outcomes were the incidence of each of these conditions separately. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the primary and secondary outcomes comparing the exposed to the unexposed cohorts, and adjusting for age, sex, ethnic group, smoking status, body mass index, relevant infections, and medications. Results 537 patients (0.11%) in the exposed cohort developed an IMID during the follow-up period over 0.29 person years, giving a crude incidence rate of 3.54 per 1000 person years. This was compared 1723 patients (0.09%) over 0.29 person years in the unexposed cohort, with an incidence rate of 2.82 per 1000 person years. Patients in the exposed cohort had a 22% relative increased risk of developing an IMID, compared to the unexposed cohort (aHR 1.22, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.34). The incidence of three IMIDs were statistically significantly associated with SARS CoV-2 infection. These were T1DM (aHR 1.56, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.23), IBD (1.52, 1.23 to 1.88), and psoriasis (1.23, 1.05 to 1.42). Conclusions SARS CoV-2 was associated with an increased incidence of IMIDs including T1DM, IBD and psoriasis. Further research is needed to replicate these findings in other populations and to measure autoantibody profiles in cohorts of individuals with COVID-19, including Long COVID and matched controls.