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Accumulation of immunity in heavy-tailed sexual contact networks shapes monkeypox outbreak sizes (preprint)
medrxiv; 2022.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2022.11.14.22282286
ABSTRACT
Many countries affected by the global outbreak of monkeypox in 2022 have observed a decline in cases. Our mathematical model incorporating empirical estimates of the heavy-tailed sexual partnership distribution among men who have sex with men (MSM) suggests that monkeypox epidemics can hit the infection-derived herd immunity threshold and begin to decline with less than 1% of sexually active MSM population infected regardless of interventions or behavioural changes. Consistently, we found that many countries and US states experienced an epidemic peak with cumulative cases of around 0.1–0.7% of MSM population. The observed decline in cases may not necessarily be attributable to interventions or behavioural changes primarily, although continuing these approaches in the most effective manner is still warranted to minimise total epidemic size.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Language:
English
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Preprint
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