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Bridging the gap_Estimation of 2022/2023 SARS-CoV-2 healthcare burden in Germany based on multidimensional data from a rapid epidemic panel (preprint)
medrxiv; 2022.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2022.12.30.22284061
ABSTRACT
Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Germany lacked an adaptive population panel for epidemic diseases and a modelling platform to rapidly incorporate panel estimates. We evaluated how a cross-sectional analysis of 9922 participants of the MuSPAD study in June/July 2022 combined with a newly developed modelling platform could bridge the gap and analyzed antibody levels, neutralizing serum activity and interferon-gamma release response of serum samples. We categorized the population into four groups with differing protection against severe course of disease (validated by neutralizing serum activity), and found that 30% were in the group with highest protection, and 85% in either the highest categories or second highest group regarding protection level. Estimated hospitalizations due to SARS-CoV-2 were predicted to be between 30 to 300% of the peak in 02/2021 dependent on assumed variant characteristics. We showed the feasibility of a rapid epidemic panel able to evaluate complex endpoints for SARS-CoV-2 and inform scenario modelling.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Main subject:
Encephalitis, Arbovirus
Language:
English
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Preprint
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