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Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19: a model-based assessment of COVID-19 mortality ascertainment in three settings with incomplete death registration systems (preprint)
medrxiv; 2023.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2023.01.04.22283691
ABSTRACT
Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported and, particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings the magnitude of such reporting gaps remain sparsely characterised. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries and social-media-conducted surveys of infection, may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modelling framework, we aim to better understand the range of under-reporting using the example of three major cities Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen) and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate 69% - 100%, 0.8% - 8.0% and 3.0% - 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in these three settings, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registrations systems are absent or limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically-needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, functioning vital registration systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality are reported and understood worldwide.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Language:
English
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Preprint
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