An estimate of pediatric lives saved due to non-pharmacologic interventions during the early COVID-19 pandemic (preprint)

ABSTRACT

The net effect of the pandemic mitigation strategies on childhood mortality is not known. During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, mitigation policies and behaviors were widespread, and although vaccinations and effective treatments were not yet widely available, the risk of death from SARS-CoV-2 infection was low. In that first year, there was a 7% decrease in medical ("natural causes") mortality among children ages 0-9 during the first pandemic year (5% among infants <1 year and 15% among children ages 1-9) in the United States, resulting in an estimated 1,488 deaths due to medical causes averted among children ages 0-9, and 1,938 deaths averted over 24 months. The usual expected surge in winter medical deaths, particularly among children ages >1 year was absent. However, smaller increases in external ("non-natural causes") mortality were also observed during the study period, which decreased the overall number of pediatric deaths averted during both years and the pandemic period. In total, 1,468 fewer all-cause pediatric deaths than expected occurred in the United States during the first 24 months of the COVID-19 pandemic.