A turning point in COVID-19 severity and fatality during the pandemic: A national cohort study in Qatar (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: This study assessed the evolution of COVID-19 severity and fatality by utilizing rigorous and standardized criteria that were consistently applied throughout the pandemic in Qatar. Methods: A national cohort study was conducted on Qataris, using data on COVID-19 acute-care and ICU hospitalizations, as well as severe, critical, and fatal COVID-19 cases classified according to the World Health Organization criteria. Results: The cumulative incidence of severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 after 3.14 years of follow-up was 0.45% (95% CI 0.43-0.47%). The incidence rate for severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 throughout the pandemic was 1.43 (95% CI 1.35-1.50) per 1,000 person-years. In the pre-omicron phase, first omicron wave, and combined phases, it was 2.01 (95% CI 1.90-2.13), 3.70 (95% CI 3.25-4.22), and 2.18 (95% CI 2.07-2.30) per 1,000 person-years, respectively. The post-first omicron phase saw a drastic drop to 0.10 (95% CI 0.08-0.14) per 1,000 person-years, a 95.4% reduction. Among all severe, critical, and fatal cases, 99.5% occurred during the primary infection. The cumulative incidence of fatal COVID-19 was 0.042% (95% CI 0.036-0.050%), with an incidence rate of 0.13 (95% CI 0.11-0.16) per 1,000 person-years. In the post-first omicron phase, the incidence rate of fatal COVID-19 decreased by 90.0% compared to earlier stages. Both severity and fatality exhibited an exponential increase with age and a linear increase with the number of coexisting conditions. Conclusions: The conclusion of the first omicron wave was a turning point in the severity of the pandemic. While vaccination and enhanced case management reduced severity gradually, the rapid accumulation of natural immunity during the initial omicron wave appears to have played the crucial role in driving this shift in severity.