The Role of Vaccine Status Homophily in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Survey with Modeling (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: Vaccine homophily describes non-heterogeneous vaccine uptake within contact networks. This study was performed to determine observable patterns of vaccine homophily, associations between vaccine homophily, self-reported vaccination, COVID-19 prevention behaviours, contact network size, and self-reported COVID-19, as well as the impact of vaccine homophily on disease transmission within and between vaccination groups under conditions of high and low vaccine efficacy. Methods: Residents of British Columbia, Canada, aged [≥]16 years, were recruited via online advertisements between February and March 2022, and provided information about vaccination status, perceived vaccination status of household and non-household contacts, compliance with COVID-19 prevention guidelines, and history of COVID-19. A deterministic mathematical model was used to assess transmission dynamics between vaccine status groups under conditions of high and low vaccine efficacy. Results: Vaccine homophily was observed among the 1304 respondents, but was lower among those with fewer doses (p<0.0001). Unvaccinated individuals had larger contact networks (p<0.0001), were more likely to report prior COVID-19 (p<0.0001), and reported lower compliance with COVID-19 prevention guidelines (p<0.0001). Mathematical modelling showed that vaccine homophily plays a considerable role in epidemic growth under conditions of high and low vaccine efficacy. Further, vaccine homophily contributes to a high force of infection among unvaccinated individuals under conditions of high vaccine efficacy, as well as elevated force of infection from unvaccinated to vaccinated individuals under conditions of low vaccine efficacy. Interpretation: The uneven uptake of COVID-19 vaccines and the nature of the contact network in the population play important roles in shaping COVID-19 transmission dynamics.