The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term cancer survival in the United Kingdom: a cohort analysis (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected healthcare systems and patients. There is a pressing need to comprehend the collateral effects of the pandemic on non-communicable diseases. Here we examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term cancer survival in the United Kingdom (UK). We hypothesised that short-term survival from nine cancers would be reduced during the pandemic, particularly cancers that benefit from screening and early detection (e.g., breast and colorectal cancer). Design: Population-based cohort study. Setting: Electronic health records from UK primary care Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD database. Participants: There were 12,259,744 eligible patients aged [≥]18 years with [≥]one year of prior history identified from January 2000 to December 2021. Main outcome measures: We estimated age-standardised incidence rates (IR) and short-term (one- and two-year) survival of several common cancers (breast, colorectal, head and neck, liver, lung, oesophagus, pancreatic, prostate, and stomach cancer) from 2000 to 2019 (in five-year strata) compared to 2020 to 2021 using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Apart from pancreatic cancer, IRs decreased for all cancers in 2020 and recovered to different extents in 2021. Short-term survival improved for most cancers between 2000 to 2019, but then declined for those diagnosed in 2020 to 2021.This was most pronounced for colorectal cancer, with one-year survival falling from 79.3% [95% confidence interval 78.5%-80.1%] in 2015 to 2019 to 76.3% [74.6%-78.1%] for those diagnosed in 2020 to 2021. Conclusion: Short-term survival for many cancers was impacted by the management of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. This decline was most prominent for colorectal cancer, with reductions in survivorship equivalent to returning to mortality seen in the first decade of the 2000s. These results illustrate the need for an immediate and well-funded investment in resolving the current backlog in cancer screening and diagnostic procedures in the UK National Health Service to improve patient outcomes.