Improving SARS-CoV-2 variants monitoring in the absence of genomic surveillance capabilities: a serological study in Bolivian blood donors in October 2021 and June 2022 (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Unlike genomic data, serological data have not been previously leveraged to evaluate the SARS-CoV-2 variants circulation. In Bolivia, sustained genomic surveillance capacities were lacking especially at the beginning of the pandemic. In 2021 and 2022 we estimated the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Bolivian blood donors and explored the feasibility of using virus serum neutralization data for variants thought to have circulated to map their circulation across all departments over a year-long follow-up period. Anti-S1 and anti-NCP SARS-CoV-2 IgGs were studied, along with virus neutralization tests for ancestral-D614G, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron BA.1 lineages of SARS-CoV-2. Between 2021 and 2022, the overall prevalence of anti-S1 and anti-NCP antibodies increased reaching values over 90%, demonstrating that a large proportion of the Bolivian population was no longer naive to the virus. Viral neutralization data, analyzed through multiple approaches, revealed the spread of the Gamma variant up to 2021, particularly impacting northern departments. In 2022, Gamma continued to circulate in southernmost departments of the country and the emergence of Omicron BA.1 was detected. These trends align with publicly available genomic data from neighboring countries. Our serological analyses successfully identified both new antigenic groups, such as Omicron BA.1, and individual variants related to previously circulating groups, such as Delta. The study contributes insights into overall population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and variant-specific immunity levels across different regions of Bolivia. It also emphasizes the potency of seroprevalence studies in informing public health decisions and underscore their value in capturing the initial phases of emerging epidemics when variant diversity is limited, facilitating timely genomic surveillance setup.