Spatial and Temporal Patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in uMgungundlovu, Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background. Investigating the spatial distribution of SARS-CoV-2 at a local level and describing the pattern of disease occurrence can be used as the basis for efficient prevention and control measures. This research project aims to utilize geospatial analysis to understand the distribution patterns of SARS-CoV-2 and its relationship with certain co-existing factors. Methods. Spatial characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 were investigated over the first four waves of transmission using ESRI ArcGISPro v2.0, including Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) with Morans "I" as the measure of spatial autocorrelation; and Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). In implementing temporal analysis, time series analysis using the Python Seaborn library was used, with separate modelling carried out for each wave. Results. Statistically significant SARS-CoV-2 incidences were noted across age groups with p-values consistently < 0.001. The central region of the district experienced a higher level of clusters indicated by the LISA (Morans I Wave 1 - 0.22, Wave 2 - 0.2, Wave 3 - 0.11, Wave 4 - 0.13) and the KDE (Highest density of cases wave 1 25.1-50, wave 2 101-150, wave 3 101-150, wave 4 50.1-100). Temporal analysis showed more fluctuation at the beginning of each wave with less fluctuation in identified cases within the middle to end of each wave. Conclusion. A Geospatial approach of analysing infectious disease transmission is proposed to guide control efforts (e.g., testing/tracing and vaccine rollout) for populations at higher vulnerability. Additionally, the nature and configuration of the social and built environment may be associated with increased transmission. However, locally specific empirical research is required to assess other relevant factors associated with increased transmission.