Changes in Antigen-Reactive Antibody Level at Various Time Spans after COVID-19 Vaccination Using Machine Learning (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Vaccines trigger a complicated immunological response that includes B and T cells, with B cells producing antibodies. SARS-CoV-2 immunity weakens over time after vaccination. Discovering key changes in antigen-reactive antibodies over time after vaccination could help improve vaccine efficiency. In this study, we collected data on blood antibody levels in a cohort of healthcare workers vaccinated for COVID-19 and obtained 73 antigens in samples from four groups according to the duration after vaccination, including 104 unvaccinated healthcare workers, 534 healthcare workers within 60 days after vaccination, 594 healthcare workers between 60 and 180 days after vaccination, and 141 healthcare workers over 180 days after vaccination. An efficient machine learning based framework containing four feature selection methods (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, light gradient boosting machine, Monte Carlo feature selection, and maximum relevance minimum redundancy) and four classification algorithms (decision tree, k-nearest neighbor, random forest, and support vector machine) was designed to screen out essential antigens. Several efficient classifiers with weighted F1 value around 0.75 were constructed. This study revealed that S1+S2, S1.mFcTag, S1.HisTag, S1, S2, Spike.RBD.His.Bac, Spike.RBD.rFc, and S1.RBD.mFc were most highly ranked among all features, where S1 and S2 are the subunits of Spike, and the suffixes represent the tagging information of different recombinant proteins. Meanwhile, the classification rules were extracted from the optimal decision tree to explain quantitatively the roles of antigens in the classification. This study identified antibodies associated with decreased clinical immunity based on populations with different time spans after vaccination. These antibodies have important implications for maintaining long-term immunity to SARS-CoV-2.