Need for Increased Investment in Human Resource for Health in India: Estimating the Required Investment for Increased Production of Health Professionals for Achieving Universal Health Coverage and Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. (preprint)

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has reinforced the importance of having sufficient, well-distributed and competent health workforce. In addition to improving health outcomes, increased investment has the potential to generate employment, increase labour productivity along with fostering economic growth. With COVID-19 highlighting the gaps in human resources for health in India, there is a need to better and empirically understand the level of required investment for increasing the production of health workforce in India for achieving the UHC/SDGs. METHODS: The study used data from a range of sources including National Health Workforce Account 2018, Periodic Labour Force Survey 2018-19, population projection of Census of India, and review of government documents and reports. The study estimated shortages in the health workforce and required investments to achieve recommended health worker population ratio thresholds by the terminal year of the SDGs 2030. RESULTS: Our results suggest that to meet the threshold of 34.5 skilled health worker per 10,000 population, there will be a shortfall of 0.16 million doctors and 0.65 nurses/midwives in the total stock of human resources for health by the year 2030. The shortages at the same threshold will be much higher (0.57 million doctors and 1.98 million nurses/midwives) in active health workforce by 2030. The shortages are even higher when compared with a higher threshold of 44.5 health workers per 10,000 population. The estimated investment for the required increase in the production of health workforce ranges from INR 523 billion to 2,580 billion for doctors. For nurses/midwives, the required investment is INR 1,096 billion. Such investment during 2021-25 has the potential of an additional employment generation within the health sector to the tune of 5.4 million and contribute to national income to the extent of INR 3,429 billion annually. Conclusion: India needs to significantly increase the production of doctors and nurses(/midwives) through investing in opening up of new medical colleges. Nursing sector should be prioritized to encourage talents to join nursing profession and provide quality education. India needs to set-up a benchmark of skill-mix ratio and provide attractive employment opportunities in health sector to increase the demand and absorb the new supply of graduates.