Evaluating COVID-19 booster vaccination strategies in a partially vaccinated population: a modeling study. (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: Several countries are implementing COVID-19 booster vaccination campaigns. The objective of this study was to model the impact of different primary and booster vaccination strategies. Methods. We used a compartmental model fitted to hospital admission data in France to analyze the impact of primary and booster vaccination strategies on morbidity and mortality, assuming waning of immunity and various levels of virus transmissibility during winter. Results. Strategies prioritizing primary vaccinations were systematically more effective than strategies prioritizing boosters. Regarding booster strategies targeting different age groups, their effectiveness varied with immunity and virus transmissibility levels. If waining of immunity affects all adults, people aged 30 to 49 years should be boosted in priority, even for low transmissibility levels. Discussion. Increasing the primary vaccination coverage should remain a priority. If a plateau has been reached, boosting immunity of younger adults could be the most effective strategy, especially if SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility is high.