The Effectiveness of Governmental Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Against COVID-19 On The Control of Seasonal Influenza Transmission: An Ecological Study (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: A range of strict nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) had been implemented in many countries to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. These NPIs might also be effective in controlling the seasonal influenza virus, which share the same transmission path with SARS-CoV-2. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of different NPIs for control of seasonal influenza. Methods: Data on 14 NPIs implemented in 33 countries and corresponding data on influenza virologic surveillance were collected. The influenza suppression index was calculated as the difference between the influenza-positive rate during its decline period from 2019 to 2020 and that during influenza epidemic seasons in the previous 9 years. A machine learning model was developed by using extreme gradient boosting tree (XGBoost) regressor to fit NPI data and influenza suppression index. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used to characterize NPIs in suppressing influenza. Results: Gathering limitation contributed the most (37.60%) among all NPIs in suppressing influenza transmission in the 2019-2020 influenza season. The top three effective NPIs were gathering limitation, international travel restriction, and school closure. Regarding the three NPIs, their intensity threshold to generate effect were restrictions on the size of gatherings less than 1000 people, travel bans on all regions or total border closure, and closing only some categories of schools, respectively. There was a strong positive interaction effect between mask wearing requirement and gathering limitation, whereas merely implementing mask wearing requirement but ignoring other NPIs would dilute mask wearing requirement’s effectiveness in suppressing influenza. Conclusions: Gathering limitation, travel bans on all regions or total border closure, and closing some levels of schools are the most effective NPIs to suppress influenza transmission. Mask wearing requirement is advised to be combined with gathering limitation and other NPIs. Our findings could facilitate the precise control of future influenza epidemics and potential pandemics.