Feasibility of COVID-19 control from a pandemic to endemic (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Evaluations of the pandemic to endemic phase are a great concern, especially in Zero-COVID-19 countries. Herein, we developed a mathematical model to simulate future scenarios for the variants of concern (VOCs) in the condition of several immune barriers and controlling measures. The results demonstrated that the Omicron variant would lead to 592.0 (mean ± standard deviation (SD) 433.9–750.0) million symptomatic, 24.3 (mean ± SD 17.4–312.8) million hospital admission, 9.6 (mean ± SD7.0–12.3) million ICU admission, and 5.4 (mean ± SD3.7–7.5) million death cases after simulation with 1,000 days. At the endemic phase, there were nearly 500 death cases per day attributed to reinfection (66% [range 62–70%]), infection from birth (18% [range 16–21%]), and infection from migration (16% [range 14–17%]). Actively treating more than 80% of cases could effectively reduce disease severity and death rates. It is feasible to transmit pandemic to endemic with Omicron variant and other milder VOCs. We recommend that the successful transition strategy is to improve medical resource allocation and enhance the prevention and control capabilities of health agencies.