Infectiousness of Places: Impact of Multiscale Human Activity Places in the Transmission of COVID-19 (preprint)

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 raises attention to epistemological risks related to everyday human activities. Our work quantifies infection transmission risks at different human activity places, including different types of settlements at macro-scale and establishments (restaurants, bars, etc.) at micro-scale, using evidences from COVID-19 in 906 urban areas across four continents. Relatively stable rules of how infection risks are distributed across human settlements and establishments are found. At micro-scale, the infection transmission risks at various establishments differ across countries, but generally, physical activity, entertainment and catering establishments lead to more infections than other activity places. At macro-scale, contrary to common beliefs, we find consistent pattern that transmission does not increase with settlement size and density. When considering interaction between the two scales, there is also consistent pattern that a smaller proportion of infections take place at specific establishments in larger settlements, suggesting that general public spaces such as streets play a greater role in transmission due to longer trips. Though with limitations, our work provides the first steps towards a system of knowledge on the linkage between places, human activities and disease transmission.