An external validation study of the Score for Emergency Risk Prediction (SERP), an interpretable machine learning-based triage score for the emergency department (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Emergency departments (EDs) are experiencing complex demands. An ED triage tool, the Score for Emergency Risk Prediction (SERP), was previously developed using an interpretable machine learning framework. It achieved a good performance in the Singapore population. We aimed to externally validate the SERP in a Korean cohort for all ED patients and compare its performance with Korean triage acuity scale (KTAS). This retrospective cohort study included all adult ED patients of Samsung Medical Center from 2016 to 2020. The outcomes were 30-day and in-hospital mortality after the patients’ ED visit. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to assess the performance of the SERP and other conventional scores, including KTAS. The study population included 285,523 ED visits, of which 53,541 were after the COVID-19 outbreak (2020). The whole cohort, in-hospital, and 30 days mortality rates were 1.60%, and 3.80%. The SERP achieved an AUROC of 0.821 and 0.803, outperforming KTAS of 0.679 and 0.729 for in-hospital and 30-day mortality, respectively. SERP was superior to other scores for in-hospital and 30-day mortality prediction in an external validation cohort. SERP is a generic, intuitive, and effective triage tool to stratify general patients who present to the emergency department