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Inferring time-varying generation time, serial interval and incubation period distributions for COVID-19 (preprint)
researchsquare; 2022.
Preprint
in English
| PREPRINT-RESEARCHSQUARE | ID: ppzbmed-10.21203.rs.3.rs-1940453.v1
ABSTRACT
The generation time distribution, reflecting the time between successive infections in transmission chains, is a key epidemiological parameter for describing COVID-19 transmission dynamics. However, because exact infection times are rarely known, it is often approximated by the serial interval distribution. This approximation holds under the assumption that infectors and infectees share the same incubation period distribution, which may not always be true. We investigated incubation period and serial interval distributions in data on 2989 confirmed cases in China in January-February 2020, and developed an inferential framework to estimate the generation time distribution that accounts for variation over time due to changes in epidemiology, sampling biases and public health and social measures. We identified substantial reductions over time in the serial interval and generation time distributions. Our proposed method provides more reliable estimation of the temporal variation in the generation time distribution, improving assessment of transmission dynamics.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
PREPRINT-RESEARCHSQUARE
Language:
English
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Preprint
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