Research on Resilience Assessment of Urban Epidemic Prevention Complex Network Driven by Improved SEIR Model (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Due to the unpredictability of Covid-19 and the complexity of community transmission, the existing theories and methods of system resilience assessment can not meet the needs of city epidemic prevention complex network resilience assessment. Therefore, this paper constructs a epidemic transmission complex network and studies the epidemic transmission model on the network---the Improved SEIR. And the paper predicts the development of the epidemic, point out the vulnerability of the network and the vulnerability of epidemic prevention. Then, according to the network structure of epidemic prevention and the results of SEIR model, the new theory and method of epidemic prevention resilience assessment in City A were constructed, and the resilience assessment of complex epidemic prevention network was divided into two dimensions network structure resilience and urban function resilience. The new methods for the city epidemic prevention complex network resilience assessment are simulationed through measured data. The results show that when the epidemic comes, improving the resilience of urban epidemic prevention functions has a better effect on epidemic prevention and control. The paper integrates improved SEIR models with urban anti-epidemic measures, providing a new approach to resilience assessment of complex systems.