Analyzing the Spread of COVID-19 Disease Using An Age-Structured Model: Application to Italy, Spain, France, UK, and Algeria Using Early Data (preprint)

ABSTRACT

The outbreak epidemic of the coronavirus (COVID-19) puts the whole world in an alert stage due to the highly spread speed. Recent researches prove that the immunity system of the human being has a crucial role in recovering. It is known that the immunity system becomes weaker for older persons. Hence, the coronavirus is highly risked for aged individuals mostly the ones that passed the 60s. The most recent approximations neglect the role of age of the individuals in the spread and degree of the fatality of the COVID-19 virus. The recent statistics show a very high death number due to COVID-19 for aged individuals. Here, we propose an age-structured model for analyzing the peak outbreak epidemic and give an approximative time of this peak next to the number of death cases due to the COVID-19 in Italy, Spain, France, United Kingdom (UK), and Algeria using early data. Further, we show the effect of the governmental restrictions of social movements on this peak and also we provide an approximative time of the end of this infection with (resp. without) restriction.