Epidemiological characteristics and the effectiveness of countermeasures to control coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo City, China (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread widely and led to high disease burden around the world. This study aimed to explore key parameters of SARS-CoV-2 infection and to assess the effectiveness of interventions to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).Methods: A susceptible – exposed – infectious – asymptomatic – recovered (SEIAR) model was developed for the assessment. Data of symptomatic and asymptomatic infection of SARS-CoV-2 were collected to calculate the key parameters of the model in Ningbo City, China.Results: A total of 157 confirmed COVID-19 cases (including 51 imported cases and 106 secondary cases) and 30 asymptomatic infections were reported in Ningbo City. The proportion of asymptomatic has an increasing trend. The proportion of asymptomatic of elder people was lower than younger people, and the difference was statistical significant (Fisher’s Exact Test, P = 0.034). There were 22 clusters associated with 167 SARS-CoV-2 infections, among which 29 cases were asymptomatic, with a proportion of 17.37%. We found that the secondary attack rate of asymptomatic was almost the same as that of symptomatic cases, and no significance was observed (χ2 = 1.350, P = 0.245) by Kruskal-Wallis test. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was 1.43 which revealed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was moderate. If the interventions were not strengthened, the duration of the outbreak would last about 16 months with a simulated attack rate of 44.15%. The total attack rate and duration of the outbreak would increase along with the increasing delay of intervention.Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 had moderate transmissibility in Ningbo City, China. Asymptomatic infection has the same transmissibility as symptomatic. The integrated interventions were implemented at different stages during the outbreak, which found to be exceedingly effective in China.