Systematic Mendelian randomization study of the effect of gut microbiome and plasma metabolome on severe COVID-19 (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background COVID-19 could develop severe respiratory symptoms in certain infected patients, especially in the patients with immune disorders. Gut microbiome and plasma metabolome act important immunological modulators in the human body and could contribute to the immune responses impacting the progression of COVID-19.Methods Based on two-sample Mendelian randomization framework, the causal effects of 131 microbiota in genus or species level and 452 plasma metabolites on severe COVID-19 are estimated. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) strongly associated with the abundance of intestinal bacteria in gut and the concentration of metabolites in plasma have been utilized as the instrument variables to infer whether they are causal factors of severe COVID-19. In addition, mediation analysis is conducted to find the potential link between the microbiota and metabolite which identified by polygenic Mendelian randomization analysis, while colocalization analysis has been performed to validate the causal relationships which identified by cis-Mendelian randomization analysis.Results Mendelian randomization support 13 microbiota and 53 metabolites, which are significantly causal association with severe COVID-19. Mediation analysis find 11 mediated relations, such as myo-inositol, 2-stearoylglycerophosphocholine and alpha-glutamyltyrosine, which appeared to mediate the association of Howardella and Ruminiclostridium 6 with severe COVID-19 respectively, while Butyrivibrio and Ruminococcus gnavus appeared to mediate the association of myo-inositol and N-acetylalanine respectively. Ruminococcus torques abundance was colocalized with severe COVID-19 (PP.H4 = 0.77) and the colon expression of permeability related protein RASIP1 (PP.H4 = 0.95).Conclusions Our study results highlight the causal relationships of gut microbiome and plasma metabolome for severe COVID-19, which have the promise to be served as clinical biomarkers for risk stratification and prognostication, and novel basis to unravel the pathophysiological mechanisms of severe COVID-19.