Probabilistic fuzzy set and particle swarm optimization based computational method for fuzzy time series forecasting (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Computational methods for time series forecasting have always an edge over conventional methods of forecasting due to their easy implementation and prominent characteristics of coping with large amount of time series data. Many computational methods for fuzzy time series (FTS) forecasting have been developed in past using fuzzy set, intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS), and hesitant fuzzy set (HFS) for incorporating uncertainty, non-determinism, and hesitation in time series forecasting. Since probabilistic fuzzy set (PFS) incorporates both probabilistic and non-probabilistic uncertainties simultaneously, we have proposed PFS and particle swarm optimization (PSO) based computational method for FTS forecasting. First, we have developed a PFS based computational method for FTS forecasting and then it is integrated with PSO to enhance the accuracy in forecasted outputs. Unlike other PSO based for FTS forecasting method, PSO is used to optimize both number of partitions and length of intervals. Three diversified time series data of enrolments of the University of Alabama, market price of State Bank of India (SBI) share at Bombay stock exchange (BSE) India, and death cases due to COVID-19 in India are used to compare the performance of PFS based computational method of FTS forecasting before and after its integration with PSO in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). After integration of PFS based computational method with PSO, accuracy in the forecasted outputs is increased significantly and its performance is found better than many other existing FTS forecasting methods. Goodness of the proposed FTS forecasting method is also tested using tracking signal and Willmott index.