Clinical characteristics and prognostic factors in elderly patients with COVID-19 (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic posed tremendous threats to the world. Elderly patients were among the high-risk population, and apt to experience worse outcomes.Methods: Elderly patients (age ≥60 years old) were enrolled from January 28 to February 29, 2020, in Tongji Hospital, one of designated COVID-19 medical centers in Wuhan, China. A retrospective study was performed to describe clinical characteristics and outcomes of elderly COVID-19 patients. COX regression was used to analyze predictors for 28-day mortality. Linear regression models were constructed to analyze factors associated with length of hospital stay (LOS).Result: A total of 186 elderly patients (aged 70.4 ± 7.1 years, 95 males (51.6%)) were enrolled, 120 patients (64.5%) were severe or critical type, and mortality rate was 16.1%. Patients in non-survival group had a higher smoking rate, more symptoms of dyspnea, lab results indicative of poorer health. Age (HR 1.128, 95% CI 1.066-1.194), lymphocyte count (HR 0.261, 95% CI 0.073-0.930), LDH (HR 1.003, 95% CI 1.002-1.005), procalcitonin (HR 1.061, 95% CI 1.002-1.125), and qSOFA (HR 3.162, 95% CI 1.646-6.072) were independently associated with 28-day mortality. CURB-65 plus LDH on admission were predictors of mortality by ROC analysis (AUROC=0.891). Among surviving patients, consolidation on CTs, elevated ferritin level and neutrophil count were associated with increased LOS.Conclusion: High incidence of comorbidities and mortality were observed in elderly patients. Decreased lymphocyte, older age, higher qSOFA score, procalcitonin and LDH levels were independent factors associated with mortality, CURB-65 plus LDH could be a predictive model of fatal outcome. Consolidation on CTs, elevated ferritin and neutrophil level correlated with increased LOS. Further prospective studies should be performed to test our findings and explore potential treatments.