Early-stage predictive markers of critically ill COVID-19 cases (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: Severe cytokine storm syndrome (CSS) is considered as the cause of death among critically ill COVID-19 cases. Early identification of the high-risk severe cases is crucial to lower the fatality and healthcare costs.Methods: In this study, we retrospectively analyzed the first and second-week serum levels of IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10 of 50 COVID-19 cases. We calculated the ratios of IL-6/IL-10 and IL-8/IL-10 at 3rd, 6th, 9th, and 12th days of hospitalization. Results: We collected 50 COVID-19 cases (male 54%, mean age 51.2, range 18 - 86), including 39 mild cases (78%), 7 severe/recovered cases (14%), and 4 died cases (8%).The ratios of IL 6/IL-10 and IL-8/IL-10 among mild cases were below 27 (the highest, 26.9) along the 4 testing points of two week hospitalization, while we found that the IL-6/IL-10 and IL-8/IL-10 ratios were as high as 187.51 and 225.3 respectively in the death group on 3rd day with the highest IL-6/IL-10 ratio of 297.28 on the 6th day of hospitalization. Conclusions: Our preliminary results suggest that the ratios of IL-6/IL-10 and IL-8/IL-10 at the early stage (the first two weeks) of COVID-19 could be a predictive marker for the disease prognosis, of which the cut-off lines were suggested below 50 for a mild and recoverable severe cases.