Nomogram Prediction of Severe Risk in Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Retrospective Study (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background COVID-19 elicits a range of different responses in patients and can manifest into mild to very severe cases in different individuals, depending on many factors. We aimed to establish a prediction model of severe risk in COVID-19 patients, to help clinicians achieve early prevention, intervention, and aid them in choosing effective therapeutic strategy.Methods We selected confirmed COVID-19 patients who admitted to First Hospital of Changsha city between January 29 and February 15, 2020 and collected their clinical data. Multivariate logical regression was used to identify the risk factors associated with severe risk. These factors were incorporated into the nomogram to establish the model. The ROC curve, calibration plot and decision curve were used to assess the performance of model.Results 239 patients were enrolled and 45 (18.83%) patients developed severe pneumonia. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that age, COPD, shortness of breath, fatigue, creatine kinase, D-dimer, lymphocytes and h CRP were independent risk factors for severe risk in COVID-19 patients. Incorporating these factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.873 (95% CI 0.819–0.927), and well-fitted calibration plot curves. The model provided superior net benefit when clinical decision thresholds were between 10–70% predicted risk.Conclusions Using the model, clinicians can intervene early, improve therapeutic effects and reduce the severity of COVID-19, thus ensuring more targeted and efficient use of medical resources.