Prediction the burden of COVID-19 in Iran: Application of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (preprint)

ABSTRACT

 Background The novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly became the world’s largest threat to health and the economy in recent times. Prediction of the COVID-19 pandemic’s full impact is a necessary gauge for future policy making, including resource allocation for prevention, mitigation, and control preparedness.Methods We used the extended form of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected/Infectious-Recovered/Removed (SEIR) model to predict new cases and number of deaths associated to COVID-19. Data from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran provided relevant parameters for predicting disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We conducted a review of the literature on COVID-19-like diseases to develop disability weights (DWs) and convened an expert panel to verify their applicability. Beta-PERT distributions were used to calculate DWs for age groups. The minimum and maximum values were 0 and 0.14 for mild to severe disability, respectively.Results The total DALYs for COVID-19 in Iran predicted by our model will be 973 per 100,000 populations from January, 2020 to January, 2021. Overall, 957 years per 100,000 will be from YLLs (98.4% of DALYs) and 16 will be from YLDs (1.6% of DALY). The total DALYs in men will be 1,082 years per 100,000 and 861 per 100,000 in women.Conclusions Our predictions of COVID-19 burden will be useful in determining health priorities and to appropriately allocate resources to prepare for future outbreaks of COVID-19 and similar diseases. We hope this study will contribute to evidence-based health policy making in Iran.