This article is a Preprint
Preprints are preliminary research reports that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Preprints posted online allow authors to receive rapid feedback and the entire scientific community can appraise the work for themselves and respond appropriately. Those comments are posted alongside the preprints for anyone to read them and serve as a post publication assessment.
Estimating Unreported COVID-19 Cases in the United States Based on the tvSIRu Model (preprint)
researchsquare; 2020.
Preprint
in English
| PREPRINT-RESEARCHSQUARE | ID: ppzbmed-10.21203.rs.3.rs-85391.v1
ABSTRACT
BackgroundThe potential unreported infection may impair and mislead policymaking for COVID-19,and the contemporary spread of COVID-19 varies in different counties of the United States. It is necessary to estimate the cases that may be underestimated based on county-level data to take better countermeasures against COVID-19. We suggested taking time-varying SIR models with unreported infection rates (UIR)to estimate the factual COVID-19 cases in the United States.MethodsSIR integrated with unreported infection rates (SIRu) of fixed time effect and SIR with time-varying parameters (tvSIRu)were applied to estimate and compare the value of transmission rate(TR), UIR, and infection fatality rate (IFR) based on US county-level COVID-19 data. ResultsBased on US county-level COVID-19 data from January 22 (T1) to August 20 (T212) in 2020, SIRu was first tested and verified by a general OLS regression. The further regression of SIRu at the country-level showed that the average values of TR, UIR, and IFR were 0.034,19.5, 0.51% respectively. The range of TR, UIR, IFR of all states ranged were 0.007-0.157 (mean=0.048) ,7.31-185.6 (mean=38.89), and 0.04%-2.22% (mean=0.22%). Among time-varying transmission rate equations, the power function showed better fitness, which indicated a decline in TR decreasing from 227.58 (T1) to 0.022 (T212). The general equation of tvSIRu showed that both the UIR and IFR were gradually increasing, wherein, the UIR has an estimate of 9.1(95%CI = 5.7-14.0), and IFR was 0.70% (0.52%-0.95%) at T212.InterpretationDespite the decline in TR and IFR, the UIR of the United States is still on the rise, which had been supposed to decrease with sufficient tests or improved countersues. The US medical system may be largely affected by severe cases in the rapid spread of COVDI-19.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
PREPRINT-RESEARCHSQUARE
Main subject:
Seizures
/
COVID-19
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Preprint
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS