Prognostic Predictors For COVID-19 in Daily Clinical Practice in Japan: a Propensity Score-Matched Case-Control Study (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Blood tests and computed tomography (CT) findings at diagnosis are widely used in daily clinical practice and can offer useful prognostic factors for coronavirus disease 2019. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 66 patients who underwent a blood test and CT between January 1 and May 31, 2020, and performed a propensity score-matched case-control study. Cases and controls were a severe respiratory failure group (non-rebreather mask, nasal high-flow, positive-pressure ventilation) and a non-severe respiratory failure group, matched at a ratio of 13 by propensity scores constructed by age, sex, and medical history. We compared groups for maximum body temperature up to diagnosis, laboratory findings, and CT findings in the matched cohort. Two-tailed P-values <0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: Nine cases and 27 controls were included in the matched cohort. Significant differences were seen in maximum body temperature up to diagnosis (p=0.0043), the number of shaded lobes (p=0.0434), amount of ground-glass opacity (GGO) in the total lung field (p=0.0071), amounts of GGO (p=0.0001), and consolidation (p=0.0036) in the upper lung field, and pleural effusion (p=0.0117). Conclusions: Fever and CT findings (such as GGO and consolidation) may be prognostic indicators that can be easily measured at diagnosis.