Prevalence and Risk Factors of Infection in the Representative COVID-19 Cohort Munich (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Background: Population-based studies investigating the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are needed. Here, we report on baseline findings from April through June 2020 of a prospective cohort study in Munich, Germany.Methods: We drew a representative sample of 2994 private households. The 5313 participating household members 14 years and older completed questionnaires and provided blood samples. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was defined as Roche N pan-Ig ≥ 0·4218. We adjusted the prevalence for the sampling design, sensitivity, and specificity. We investigated risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and geospatial transmission patterns by generalized linear mixed models and permutation tests.Findings: Seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies was 1·82% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1·28-2·37%) as compared to 0·46% PCR-positive cases officially registered in Munich. Loss of the sense of smell or taste was associated with seropositivity (odds ratio (OR) 47·4; 95% CI 7·2-307·0) and infections clustered within households. Participants suffering from respiratory allergies (OR 2·7; 95% CI 0·9-8·6) and working in high-risk jobs (OR 2·0; 95% CI 0·5-6·7) showed non-significantly increased odds for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity.Interpretation: Applying a validated assay, we demonstrate a low SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the Munich population 14 years and older towards the end of the first pandemic wave. However, we noted official sub-registration at this early stage of the pandemic.Funding: Bavarian State Ministry of Science and the Arts, University Hospital of LMU Munich, Helmholtz Centre Munich, University of Bonn, and University of Bielefeld.Declaration of Interests FF, TF, DM, LO, and VT report grants from the Bavarian State Ministry of Science and the Arts during the conduct oft he study. TF reports grants from the University Hospital of LMU Munich, Helmholtz Center Munich, University of Bonn, University of Bielefeld, and German Ministry for Education and Research during the conduct of the study. JH reports grants from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research during the conduct of the study. MH and AW report personal fees and non-financial support, LO and MP report non-financial support from Roche Diagnostics. MH, LO, MP, and AW report non-financial support from Euroimmun, Viramed, and Mikrogen. MH, MP, and AW report grants, non-financial support, and other from German Center for Infection Research (DZIF). FF, MH, LO, MP, VT, and AW report grants and non-financial support from the Government of Bavaria. MH, LO, MP, and AW report non-financial support from BMW, Mercedes Benz, Munich Police, and Accenture. MH and AW report personal fees and non-financial support from Dr. Box Betrobox during the conduct of the study. LO and MP report non-financial support from Dr. Box Betrobox. MH and AW have a patent Sample System for Sputum Diagnostics of SARS-CoV-2 pending. DM reports to be a a sub-investigator on a Phase I SARS-CoV-2 vaccine trial and on a Phase I rabies vaccine trial, both sponsored by CureVac AG. MP and AW report non-financial support from Dr. Becker MVZ. VT reports support from CureVac AG outside the submitted work. AW reports personal fees and other from Haeraeus Sensors. AW reports non-financial support from Bruker Daltronics outside the submitted work. AW is involved in other different patents and companies not in relation with the serology of SARS-CoV-2. All other authors report nothing to disclose.Ethics Approval Statement Prior to study initiation, this study had been approved by therespective Institutional Review Board.