The Effect of Domestic Air Travel on the Spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. (preprint)

ABSTRACT

We examine the relationship between domestic air travel and the spread of COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic in the U.S. To do this, we link airline passenger flows with COVID-19 infection and mortality data, controlling for county-level population and demographic data. We examine infection and mortality rates in counties receiving more versus fewer airline passengers from four early COVID-19 hotspots New York City, Boston, Detroit, and New Orleans. We then compare the effect of airline passengers from these four hotspots with the effect of airline passengers from a set of eight cities who did not experience early outbreaks. We find that passengers arriving from COVID-19 hotspots are not positively correlated with local COVID-19 infection and death rates. Passengers arriving from our eight comparison group cities are positively, but very weakly, correlated with local infection and mortality rates. Our results imply that banning domestic air travel may do little to slow the spread of infections.