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Estimating the Protectiveness of Face Mask on Seasonal Influenza Transmissibility During COVID-19 Early Spread (preprint)
ssrn; 2021.
Preprint
in English
| PREPRINT-SSRN | ID: ppzbmed-10.2139.ssrn.3844862
ABSTRACT
Background:
After COVID-19 early expansion occurred in mainland China, seasonal influenza transmission in Hong Kong, which was growing initially, immediately plateaued, and then abruptly declined a few weeks later. These patterns correspond to the three phases of early COVID-19 spread from Wuhan to Hong Kong, i.e. the ordinary before the occurrence in Wuhan; the awareness after the evidence of human-to-human transmission was revealed; and the spreading after the first local case was confirmed in Hong Kong. The available surveyed data on changes in precautionary behavior during these phases, i.e. face mask wearing and avoiding the crowd, provide an opportunity to estimate the protectiveness of face mask on influenza transmissibility.Methods:
We developed a time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TS-SIR) regression model to estimate the time-varying effective reproduction number Rt based on the weekly reported influenza cases. The reporting rate of influenza was adjusted under the assumption that patients with severe influenza were seeking medical care. After separating the effect from herd immunity, the percent reduction in Rt from each behavior was calculated as an indication of the protectiveness.Findings:
The average Rt of winter influenza season in 2019/20 was estimated in the three phases 1.29 (95%CI, 1.27 to 1.32) in the ordinary, 1.00 (95%CI, 0.99 to 1.00) in the awareness, and 0.73 (95%CI, 0.73 to 0.74) in the spreading. Our results showed that face mask wearing protected 22% from being transmitted, which was nearly half of the effect of avoiding the crowd (42%). If more than 79% of the people adopted both precautionary behaviors, the initial Rt reduced to less than one.Interpretation:
The results suggested that mandatory face mask wearing along with social distancing practices could be effective in suppressing the transmission of influenza, which may also give hints on preventing COVID-19 infection.Funding Information We declare no competing interests.Declaration of Interests We acknowledge the support from grants funded by Health and Medical Research Fund [COVID190329415], City University of Hong Kong [7200573], andWellcome Trust and The Royal Society [213494/Z/18/3Z95].
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
PREPRINT-SSRN
Main subject:
COVID-19
Language:
English
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Preprint
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