Association Among Gender, Age, and Region in Taiwan's First Ten Thousand COVID-19 Cases: A Log-linear-model Analysis (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Objectives: We explore the association between age, gender, and region among Taiwan's 11290 local Covid-19 cases from January 22, 2020 to June 11, 2021. Methods: Using open data from Taiwan's CDC, we organize them into a three-dimensional contingency table. The groups are gender, age 0-29, 30-59, and 60+ years old, and two classifications for region (1) 7 commonly-defined regions, (2) 12 groups separating Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung, Taoyuan, Hsinchu county, Miaoli county, and Hsinchu city. We adopt the log-linear model for statistical analysis and use the BIC for model selection. Results: The model with three pairwise interaction terms has the smallest BIC. In terms of interaction effects, there are more females than males among 30-59 (p<0.001), while more males than females among 60+ (p=0.028). Miaoli County has more male than female cases (p<0.001). Differences between 30-59 and 0-29 (baseline), and between 60+ and 0-29 are significant in Taipei (p=0.002 and p <0.001); similar age effects for New Taipei is observed; Miaoli County has significant difference between 60+ and 0-29 (p<0.001). All Taoyuan's interaction terms are not significant. The main effects of age, the differences between 30-59 and 0-29 (baseline), and between 60+ and 0-29, are both significant (p=0.002 and p=0.046). Conclusions: In the four regions with larger numbers of Covid-19 cases, the age and gender characteristics of the infected population are different, reflecting patterns of infection chains.