Extending Dynamic Origin-Destination Estimation to Understand Traffic Patterns During COVID-19 (preprint)

ABSTRACT

Estimating dynamic Origin-Destination (OD) traffic flow is crucial for understanding traffic patterns and the traffic network. While dynamic origin-destination estimation (DODE) has been studied for decades as a useful tool for estimating traffic flow, few existing models have considered its potential in evaluating the influence of policy on travel activity. This paper proposes a data-driven approach to estimate OD traffic flow using sensor data on highways and local roads. We extend prior DODE models to improve accuracy and realism in order to estimate how policies affect OD traffic flow in large urban networks. We applied our approach to a case study in Los Angeles County, where we developed a traffic network, estimated OD traffic flow between health districts during COVID-19, and analyzed the relationship between OD traffic flow and demographic characteristics such as income. Our findings demonstrate that the proposed approach provides valuable insights into traffic flow patterns and their underlying demographic factors for a large-scale traffic network. Specifically, our approach allows for evaluating the impact of policy changes on travel activity. The approach has practical applications for transportation planning and traffic management, enabling a better understanding of traffic flow patterns and the impact of policy changes on travel activity.