Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19.
BMC Med
; 19(1): 19, 2021 01 12.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1024366
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission.METHODS:
We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection.RESULTS:
We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model.CONCLUSIONS:
This study provides a "proof of possibility" for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Infecciones por Coronavirus
/
Reacciones Cruzadas
/
Protección Cruzada
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Estudio experimental
/
Estudio observacional
/
Estudio pronóstico
/
Ensayo controlado aleatorizado
Tópicos:
Vacunas
Límite:
Humanos
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
BMC Med
Asunto de la revista:
Medicina
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
País de afiliación:
S12916-020-01887-1
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