Age-dependent final size equation to anticipate mortality impact of COVID-19 in China.
Math Biosci Eng
; 20(6): 11353-11366, 2023 Apr 27.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2321588
ABSTRACT
Before reopening society in December 2022, China had not achieved sufficiently high vaccination coverage among people aged 80 years and older, who are vulnerable to severe infection and death owing to COVID-19. Suddenly ending the zero-COVID policy was anticipated to lead to substantial mortality. To investigate the mortality impact of COVID-19, we devised an age-dependent transmission model to derive a final size equation, permitting calculation of the expected cumulative incidence. Using an age-specific contact matrix and published estimates of vaccine effectiveness, final size was computed as a function of the basic reproduction number, R0. We also examined hypothetical scenarios in which third-dose vaccination coverage was increased in advance of the epidemic, and also in which mRNA vaccine was used instead of inactivated vaccines. Without additional vaccination, the final size model indicated that a total of 1.4 million deaths (half of which were among people aged 80 years and older) were anticipated with an assumed R0 of 3.4. A 10% increase in third-dose coverage would prevent 30,948, 24,106, and 16,367 deaths, with an assumed second-dose effectiveness of 0%, 10%, and 20%, respectively. With mRNA vaccine, the mortality impact would have been reduced to 1.1 million deaths. The experience of reopening in China indicates the critical importance of balancing pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Ensuring sufficiently high vaccination coverage is vital in advance of policy changes.
Palabras clave
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Epidemias
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Estudio experimental
/
Estudio observacional
Tópicos:
Vacunas
Límite:
Humanos
País/Región como asunto:
Asia
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
Math Biosci Eng
Año:
2023
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
País de afiliación:
Mbe.2023503
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