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Assessing the hospital surge capacity of the Kenyan health system in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Barasa, Edwine W; Ouma, Paul O; Okiro, Emelda A.
  • Barasa EW; Health Economics Research Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.
  • Ouma PO; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
  • Okiro EA; Population Health Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.
PLoS One ; 15(7): e0236308, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-650507
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ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION:

The COVID-19 pandemic will test the capacity of health systems worldwide and especially so in low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to assess the surge capacity of the Kenyan of the Kenyan health system in terms of general hospital and ICU beds in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS:

We assumed that 2% of the Kenyan population get symptomatic infection by SARS-Cov-2 based on modelled estimates for Kenya and determined the health system surge capacity for COVID-19 under three transmission curve scenarios, 6, 12, and 18 months. We estimated four measures of hospital surge capacity namely 1) hospital bed surge capacity 2) ICU bed surge capacity 3) Hospital bed tipping point, and 5) ICU bed tipping point. We computed this nationally and for all the 47 county governments.

RESULTS:

The capacity of Kenyan hospitals to absorb increases in caseload due to COVID-19 is constrained by the availability of oxygen, with only 58% of hospital beds in hospitals with oxygen supply. There is substantial variation in hospital bed surge capacity across counties. For example, under the 6 months transmission scenario, the percentage of available general hospital beds that would be taken up by COVID-19 cases varied from 12% Tharaka Nithi county, to 145% in Trans Nzoia county. Kenya faces substantial gaps in ICU beds and ventilator capacity. Only 22 out of the 47 counties have at least 1 ICU unit. Kenya will need an additional 1,511 ICU beds and 1,609 ventilators (6 months transmission curve) to 374 ICU beds and 472 ventilators (18 months transmission curve) to absorb caseloads due to COVID-19.

CONCLUSION:

Significant gaps exist in Kenya's capacity for hospitals to accommodate a potential surge in caseload due to COVID-19. Alongside efforts to slow and supress the transmission of the infection, the Kenyan government will need to implement adaptive measures and additional investments to expand the hospital surge capacity for COVID-19. Additional investments will however need to be strategically prioritized to focus on strengthening essential services first, such as oxygen availability before higher cost investments such as ICU beds and ventilators.
Asunto(s)

Texto completo: Disponible Colección: Bases de datos internacionales Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Neumonía Viral / Ventiladores Mecánicos / Infecciones por Coronavirus / Capacidad de Reacción / Capacidad de Camas en Hospitales Tipo de estudio: Estudio observacional Límite: Humanos País/Región como asunto: Africa Idioma: Inglés Revista: PLoS One Asunto de la revista: Ciencia / Medicina Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Artículo País de afiliación: Journal.pone.0236308

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Texto completo: Disponible Colección: Bases de datos internacionales Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Neumonía Viral / Ventiladores Mecánicos / Infecciones por Coronavirus / Capacidad de Reacción / Capacidad de Camas en Hospitales Tipo de estudio: Estudio observacional Límite: Humanos País/Región como asunto: Africa Idioma: Inglés Revista: PLoS One Asunto de la revista: Ciencia / Medicina Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Artículo País de afiliación: Journal.pone.0236308