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Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir.
Du, Zhanwei; Nugent, Ciara; Galvani, Alison P; Krug, Robert M; Meyers, Lauren Ancel.
  • Du Z; Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
  • Nugent C; Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
  • Galvani AP; Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CN, USA.
  • Krug RM; Department of Molecular Biosciences, John Ring LaMontagne Center for Infectious Disease, Institute for Cellular and Molecular Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
  • Meyers LA; Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA. laurenmeyers@austin.utexas.edu.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 2750, 2020 06 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-680538
ABSTRACT
Influenza viruses annually kill 290,000-650,000 people worldwide. Antivirals can reduce death tolls. Baloxavir, the recently approved influenza antiviral, inhibits initiation of viral mRNA synthesis, whereas oseltamivir, an older drug, inhibits release of virus progeny. Baloxavir blocks virus replication more rapidly and completely than oseltamivir, reducing the duration of infectiousness. Hence, early baloxavir treatment may indirectly prevent transmission. Here, we estimate impacts of ramping up and accelerating baloxavir treatment on population-level incidence using a new model that links viral load dynamics from clinical trial data to between-host transmission. We estimate that ~22 million infections and >6,000 deaths would have been averted in the 2017-2018 epidemic season by administering baloxavir to 30% of infected cases within 48 h after symptom onset. Treatment within 24 h would almost double the impact. Consequently, scaling up early baloxavir treatment would substantially reduce influenza morbidity and mortality every year. The development of antivirals against the SARS-CoV2 virus that function like baloxavir might similarly curtail transmission and save lives.
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Texto completo: Disponible Colección: Bases de datos internacionales Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Antivirales / Orthomyxoviridae / Oxazinas / Piridinas / Tiepinas / Triazinas / Gripe Humana / Epidemias Tipo de estudio: Estudio observacional / Estudio pronóstico / Ensayo controlado aleatorizado Límite: Humanos Idioma: Inglés Revista: Nat Commun Asunto de la revista: Biologia / Ciencia Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Artículo País de afiliación: S41467-020-16585-y

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Texto completo: Disponible Colección: Bases de datos internacionales Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Antivirales / Orthomyxoviridae / Oxazinas / Piridinas / Tiepinas / Triazinas / Gripe Humana / Epidemias Tipo de estudio: Estudio observacional / Estudio pronóstico / Ensayo controlado aleatorizado Límite: Humanos Idioma: Inglés Revista: Nat Commun Asunto de la revista: Biologia / Ciencia Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Artículo País de afiliación: S41467-020-16585-y