Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir.
Nat Commun
; 11(1): 2750, 2020 06 02.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-680538
ABSTRACT
Influenza viruses annually kill 290,000-650,000 people worldwide. Antivirals can reduce death tolls. Baloxavir, the recently approved influenza antiviral, inhibits initiation of viral mRNA synthesis, whereas oseltamivir, an older drug, inhibits release of virus progeny. Baloxavir blocks virus replication more rapidly and completely than oseltamivir, reducing the duration of infectiousness. Hence, early baloxavir treatment may indirectly prevent transmission. Here, we estimate impacts of ramping up and accelerating baloxavir treatment on population-level incidence using a new model that links viral load dynamics from clinical trial data to between-host transmission. We estimate that ~22 million infections and >6,000 deaths would have been averted in the 2017-2018 epidemic season by administering baloxavir to 30% of infected cases within 48 h after symptom onset. Treatment within 24 h would almost double the impact. Consequently, scaling up early baloxavir treatment would substantially reduce influenza morbidity and mortality every year. The development of antivirals against the SARS-CoV2 virus that function like baloxavir might similarly curtail transmission and save lives.
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Antivirales
/
Orthomyxoviridae
/
Oxazinas
/
Piridinas
/
Tiepinas
/
Triazinas
/
Gripe Humana
/
Epidemias
Tipo de estudio:
Estudio observacional
/
Estudio pronóstico
/
Ensayo controlado aleatorizado
Límite:
Humanos
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
Nat Commun
Asunto de la revista:
Biologia
/
Ciencia
Año:
2020
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
País de afiliación:
S41467-020-16585-y
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