Prognostic Modeling of COVID-19 Using Artificial Intelligence in the United Kingdom: Model Development and Validation.
J Med Internet Res
; 22(8): e20259, 2020 08 25.
Artículo
en Inglés
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-836091
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The current severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak is a public health emergency and the case fatality rate in the United Kingdom is significant. Although there appear to be several early predictors of outcome, there are no currently validated prognostic models or scoring systems applicable specifically to patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2.OBJECTIVE:
We aim to create a point-of-admission mortality risk scoring system using an artificial neural network (ANN).METHODS:
We present an ANN that can provide a patient-specific, point-of-admission mortality risk prediction to inform clinical management decisions at the earliest opportunity. The ANN analyzes a set of patient features including demographics, comorbidities, smoking history, and presenting symptoms and predicts patient-specific mortality risk during the current hospital admission. The model was trained and validated on data extracted from 398 patients admitted to hospital with a positive real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test for SARS-CoV-2.RESULTS:
Patient-specific mortality was predicted with 86.25% accuracy, with a sensitivity of 87.50% (95% CI 61.65%-98.45%) and specificity of 85.94% (95% CI 74.98%-93.36%). The positive predictive value was 60.87% (95% CI 45.23%-74.56%), and the negative predictive value was 96.49% (95% CI 88.23%-99.02%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 90.12%.CONCLUSIONS:
This analysis demonstrates an adaptive ANN trained on data at a single site, which demonstrates the early utility of deep learning approaches in a rapidly evolving pandemic with no established or validated prognostic scoring systems.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
Disponible
Colección:
Bases de datos internacionales
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Neumonía Viral
/
Infecciones por Coronavirus
/
Pandemias
/
Betacoronavirus
Tipo de estudio:
Estudios diagnósticos
/
Estudio observacional
/
Estudio pronóstico
Límite:
Anciano
/
Femenino
/
Humanos
/
Masculino
/
Middle aged
País/Región como asunto:
Europa
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
J Med Internet Res
Asunto de la revista:
Informática Médica
Año:
2020
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
País de afiliación:
20259
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