Estimating the generation interval and inferring the latent period of COVID-19 from the contact tracing data.
Epidemics
; 36: 100482, 2021 09.
Article
Dans Anglais
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1281413
ABSTRACT
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged by end of 2019, and became a serious public health threat globally in less than half a year. The generation interval and latent period, though both are of importance in understanding the features of COVID-19 transmission, are difficult to observe, and thus they can rarely be learnt from surveillance data empirically. In this study, we develop a likelihood framework to estimate the generation interval and incubation period simultaneously by using the contact tracing data of COVID-19 cases, and infer the pre-symptomatic transmission proportion and latent period thereafter. We estimate the mean of incubation period at 6.8 days (95 %CI 6.2, 7.5) and SD at 4.1 days (95 %CI 3.7, 4.8), and the mean of generation interval at 6.7 days (95 %CI 5.4, 7.6) and SD at 1.8 days (95 %CI 0.3, 3.8). The basic reproduction number is estimated ranging from 1.9 to 3.6, and there are 49.8 % (95 %CI 33.3, 71.5) of the secondary COVID-19 infections likely due to pre-symptomatic transmission. Using the best estimates of model parameters, we further infer the mean latent period at 3.3 days (95 %CI 0.2, 7.9). Our findings highlight the importance of both isolation for symptomatic cases, and for the pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.
Mots clés
Texte intégral:
Disponible
Collection:
Bases de données internationales
Base de données:
MEDLINE
Sujet Principal:
Traçage des contacts
/
COVID-19
Limites du sujet:
Humains
langue:
Anglais
Revue:
Epidemics
Année:
2021
Type de document:
Article
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