Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of SARS-CoV-2 in Mogadishu, Somalia: estimates from transmission modelling of 2020 excess mortality data (preprint)

ABSTRACT

IntroductionIn countries with weak surveillance systems confirmed COVID-19 deaths are likely to underestimate the death toll of the pandemic. Many countries also have incomplete vital registration systems, hampering excess mortality estimation. Here, we fitted a dynamic transmission model to satellite imagery data on burial patterns in Mogadishu, Somalia during 2020 to estimate the date of introduction, transmissibility and other epidemiologic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 in this low-income, crisis-affected setting. MethodsWe performed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting with an age-structured compartmental COVID-19 model to provide median estimates and credible intervals for the date of introduction, the basic reproduction number (R0) and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in Mogadishu up to September 2020. ResultsUnder the assumption that excess deaths in Mogadishu February-September 2020 were directly attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection we arrived at median estimates of October-November 2019 for the date of introduction and low R0 estimates (1.3-1.5) stemming from the early and slow rise of excess deaths. The effect of control measures on transmissibility appeared small. ConclusionSubject to study assumptions, a very early SARS-CoV-2 introduction event may have occurred in Somalia. Estimated transmissibility in the first epidemic wave was lower than observed in European settings.