Analysis of severe illness after post-vaccination COVID-19 breakthrough among adults with and without HIV in the United States (preprint)

ABSTRACT

ImportanceUnderstanding the severity of post-vaccination COVID-19 breakthrough illness among people with HIV (PWH) can inform vaccine guidelines and risk-reduction recommendations. ObjectiveEstimate the rate and risk of severe breakthrough illness among vaccinated PWH and people without HIV (PWoH) who experience a breakthrough infection. Design, setting, and participantsThe Corona-Infectious-Virus Epidemiology Team (CIVET-II) collaboration consists of four US longitudinal cohorts from integrated health systems and academic centers. Adults ([≥]18 years old), in-care, fully vaccinated by June 30, 2021 with HIV, and matched PWoH (on date fully vaccinated, age group, race/ethnicity, and sex) were the source population. Those who experienced a post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection were eligible. Severe COVID-19 breakthrough illness was defined as hospitalization due to COVID-19. Discrete time proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals ([,]) of severe breakthrough illness by HIV status adjusting for demographics, COVID-19 vaccine type, and clinical factors. The proportion of patients requiring mechanical ventilation or died was compared by HIV status. ExposureHIV infection OutcomeSevere COVID-19 breakthrough illness, defined as hospitalization within 28 days after a breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection with a primary or secondary COVID-19 discharge diagnosis. ResultsAmong 1,241 PWH and 2,408 PWoH with breakthrough infections, the cumulative incidence of severe illness in the first 28 days was low and comparable between PWoH and PWH (7.3% vs. 6.7%, respectively, risk difference=-0.67% [-2.58%, 1.23%]). The risk of severe breakthrough illness was 59% higher in PWH with CD4 counts <350 cells/mm3 compared with PWoH (aHR=1.59 [0.99, 2.46]). In multivariable analyses among PWH, being female, older, having a cancer diagnosis, and lower CD4 count increased the risk of severe breakthrough illness, while previous COVID-19 reduced the risk. Among all patients, 10% were mechanically ventilated and 8% died, with no difference by HIV status. Conclusions and RelevanceThe risk of severe COVID-19 breakthrough illness within 28 days of a breakthrough infection was low among vaccinated PWH and PWoH. However, PWH with moderate and severe immune suppression had a higher risk of severe breakthrough infection. Recommendations for additional vaccine doses and risk-reduction strategies for PWH with moderate immune suppression may be warranted. Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSIn 2021, among fully vaccinated people with COVID-19 breakthrough illness, was the risk of severe illness higher in people with HIV (PWH) compared to people without HIV (PWoH)? FindingsPWH with <350 cells/mm3 have a 59% increased risk of severe breakthrough illness compared to PWoH. MeaningVaccinations effectively reduce the risk of severe COVID-19 infection in both PWH and PWoH; however, PWH having a CD4 count <350 cells/mm3 are at higher risk of severe breakthrough infection compared to PWoH. PWH with moderate immune suppression should be considered for additional vaccine dosages and other risk-reduction measures.